2016 Intermountain GIS Conference

Over 5,500 significant pipeline accidents have occurred in the United States over the last 20 years, costing an estimated seven billion dollars (PHMSA). Pipeline operators actively manage their assets to reduce the likelihood and consequences of accidents. The ability to predict the consequences of pipeline accidents before they occur greatly aids operators in protecting their sensitive sections of pipe as well as the surrounding cultural and environmental resources. The goal of this study provides quantitative damage forecasting by automating and testing one damage estimation model. The Basic Oil Spill Cost Estimation Model (BOSCEM) was created in conjunction with the Environmental Protection Agency to provide a methodology for estimating oil spill costs. It breaks costs down into environmental, sociocultural and response categories and considers a number of factors which influence each. Many of the factors can be estimated using Geographic Information Systems. A workflow using publicly available datasets as well as pipeline rupture simulation outputs as inputs has been established. Python, a programming language, will be used along with ArcGIS to automate this process creating a consistent and repeatable tool. This is important for the pipeline industry because these features require many simulations along their entire lengths to be reliable. Finally, historic spills will be compared with the output of the tool to validate the methodology for forecasting oil spill costs. This project will contribute to pipeline GIS by providing one way to quantitatively model hazards associated with pipeline operation. It will also provide validation of the model by determining if it produces reasonable estimates for incidents of known cost.